$4 Gallon Gas Predicted
#11
08-31-2005, 02:06 PM
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
Originally Posted by ralph_dog
I don't think price is an issue here. Gas could be $10 per gallon and we would still burn it at record levels. The damage and destruction to one of our richest oil fields can be directly attributed to global warming, which in turn, will produce more powerful and destructive storms to threaten other critical oil producing areas in the Gulf and areas around the globe.
Gas prices at even $4 a gallon will RAPIDLY INCREASE the research and development of alternative energy sources, and in addition, will price a LOT of people out of the excessive gas usage cycle they have put themselves into with their love affair with large SUVs. The higher it goes, the lower consumption will go because people WILL start changing their lives so they can afford to eat.
Some people driving a 16 MPG Durango when their family of five would fit into a 25 MPG CR-V will trade for a CR-V. Many people obliterating the planet with H2s will continue, but some of them will ALSO be smart enough and frugal enough (you usually do not get rich by being a dumb consumer) to buy a commuter car to use when the "large capacity" of the Hummer is not an issue for a particular trip.
A lot of people I know have just purchased something like the Escalade for a "vision" vehicle to make them look like they have money. One guy here who is a real showoff had a Prius, an H2, and an Escalade at one point, with a family income of just around $100,000. He lost his shirt in a divorce, ditched the H2, down-graded to a less expensive Escalade and now drives a 2005 Prius for his commuter, and just uses the Escalade for long trips when they have to carry a lot of junk. People like HIM will downsize to a smaller, maybe a Hybrid, SUV.
Higher gas prices HAVE ALREADY and will continue to feed the Hybrid frenzy, and people are ALREADY changing their lives to meet higher fuel costs. That is a GOOD THING !!!
Last edited by lars-ss; 08-31-2005 at 02:09 PM.
#12
08-31-2005, 02:18 PM
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Lewisville (Dallas), Texas
Posts: 3,155
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
Originally Posted by ralph_dog
I don't think price is an issue here. Gas could be $10 per gallon and we would still burn it at record levels. The damage and destruction to one of our richest oil fields can be directly attributed to global warming, which in turn, will produce more powerful and destructive storms to threaten other critical oil producing areas in the Gulf and areas around the globe. Lower emissions and new 0 emission energy alternatives are the answer as we have all read on this site.
Conservation will definitely help with supply but will just prolong our global warming agony as third world nations burn more fossil fuels and create more greenhouse gases.
reg unleaded just went up to 3.12 here in boston.
Conservation will definitely help with supply but will just prolong our global warming agony as third world nations burn more fossil fuels and create more greenhouse gases. reg unleaded just went up to 3.12 here in boston.
This morning was a horrible commute. Normally I get 80+mpg when I go to work. Instead, there was a 30-minute detour around construction plus an accident. And it was a Red Ozone day.
My mpg this morning: 56.8 after dipping to 39.Yes, I think Global Warming was a factor in Hurricane Katrina.
#13
08-31-2005, 02:39 PM
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
Yes, I think Global Warming was a factor in Hurricane Katrina.
There have ALWAYS since the beginning of the current geographic Earth been Atlantic Hurricanes. Stronger and Wetter ones than this one.
Global Warming does a LOT of things, but it does NOT cause Hurricanes, guys - Listen to yourself !! LOL !!!
#14
08-31-2005, 02:59 PM
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
Possibly. We have been burning fossil fuels worldwide, mainly coal, for a very long time and will continue to do so for a very long time. As surface temps of the oceans increase, this heat needs to dissipate and you get large storms and hurricanes/typhoons, which transfer this heat to higher cooler lattitudes. The hotter the ocean, the bigger the storms.
#15
08-31-2005, 03:06 PM
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
Thanx for speaking some common sense there LARS-SS, I know I wasn't the only one thinking that.
"This is where the government is needed" Man I don't speak those words very often but I think I'm in agreement with you there. Government has overreached itself into so many places it doesn't need to be today that it's sickening, but this is an area where they are actually needed and could actually do good work. It'd really be a win win situation for everyone but oil companies. Now I hate filtering through all the far-left BS on the internet when looking at hybrid info/news, I don't buy their black helicopter conspiracy theories. Improving the environment helps anyone who lives in it and it can be done to coincide (sp?) with business....just as long as you have some smart people making the decisions and neither are from extremists point of views. National Security is just as big a reason, getting off the oil nipple would put this country at a huge advantage over up and coming China and India.
People on both sides need to start being "other oriented" when presenting their ideas and views. If people don't "sell" their opinon/idea/etc to the "other side" in a way that they'll want to work with you, it's gonna be a much longer road to go down to fix these problems. The end result has benefits for extremists on both sides of the political spectrum. The #1 priority for acheiving that end goal doesn't really matter if it's the same or not as long as everyone gets there.
"The "how long will it last" is of course the trillion dollar question. If $4/gallon was the new pricepoint forever, then refiners and farmers could safely put in the investments to plant new crops for soy, and refiners could spend the billions for the refineries to turn soy into biodiesel and ethanol. Unfortunately, neither the farmers nor refiners want to spend a few billion dollars if gas prices drop to $1.50/gallon before the next harvest season. It takes years to put infrastructure in place.
This is where government is needed. There's just no way around it. Individuals don't want to take a risk of massive personal financial danger just "for the good of society" and hoping prices are still high in a few years. We already spend what, $1800 billion a year at the federal level? Spent a couple billion helping farming companies and refiners put infrastructure in place that can get us OUT of being reliant on imported oil for our fuel supplies. Biodiesel from algae doesn't even require farmable land, you could put those out in the middle of the Texas desert and they'll thrive.
This is where government is needed. There's just no way around it. Individuals don't want to take a risk of massive personal financial danger just "for the good of society" and hoping prices are still high in a few years. We already spend what, $1800 billion a year at the federal level? Spent a couple billion helping farming companies and refiners put infrastructure in place that can get us OUT of being reliant on imported oil for our fuel supplies. Biodiesel from algae doesn't even require farmable land, you could put those out in the middle of the Texas desert and they'll thrive.
People on both sides need to start being "other oriented" when presenting their ideas and views. If people don't "sell" their opinon/idea/etc to the "other side" in a way that they'll want to work with you, it's gonna be a much longer road to go down to fix these problems. The end result has benefits for extremists on both sides of the political spectrum. The #1 priority for acheiving that end goal doesn't really matter if it's the same or not as long as everyone gets there.
#16
08-31-2005, 03:16 PM
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
Atlantic ocean temps go up and down, based on Global climate, true. But there is no "consisten temp rise" in that region from 1970 to 1990, at least.
See this page:
http://www-ocean.tamu.edu/Quarterdeck/QD6.2/model.html
This chart shows very little difference in the number and strength of hurricanes since the 1930s. It's a cycle little affected by warming.
http://www.climate.org/topics/climat...nes_200408.jpg
This page says this:
http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm
This guy says this on this page:
http://newsinfo.colostate.edu/index...._id=-602728157
The years 1995-99 were the most-active five consecutive years of hurricane activity on record in the Atlantic Basin, yielding 65 named storms, 41 hurricanes and 20 major hurricanes. By contrast, the numbers of hurricanes and typhoons in the Pacific Ocean are lower, which Gray takes as an indication that the upward trend in Atlantic storms should not be interpreted as being the result of human-induced global warming.
So I guess it just hinges on which data you believe - the TONS of data which shows that humans are not adversely affecting the climate, or the TONS of data which shows that we are....
See this page:
http://www-ocean.tamu.edu/Quarterdeck/QD6.2/model.html
This chart shows very little difference in the number and strength of hurricanes since the 1930s. It's a cycle little affected by warming.
http://www.climate.org/topics/climat...nes_200408.jpg
This page says this:
http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm
Discussion - There are no experimental data to support the hypothesis that increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are causing or can be expected to cause catastrophic changes in global temperatures or weather. To the contrary, during the 20 years with the highest carbon dioxide levels, atmospheric temperatures have decreased.
We also need not worry about environmental calamities, even if the current long-term natural warming trend continues. The Earth has been much warmer during the past 3,000 years without catastrophic effects. Warmer weather extends growing seasons and generally improves the habitability of colder regions. ''Global warming,'' an invalidated hypothesis, provides no reason to limit human production of CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 as has been proposed (29).
We also need not worry about environmental calamities, even if the current long-term natural warming trend continues. The Earth has been much warmer during the past 3,000 years without catastrophic effects. Warmer weather extends growing seasons and generally improves the habitability of colder regions. ''Global warming,'' an invalidated hypothesis, provides no reason to limit human production of CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 as has been proposed (29).
http://newsinfo.colostate.edu/index...._id=-602728157
The years 1995-99 were the most-active five consecutive years of hurricane activity on record in the Atlantic Basin, yielding 65 named storms, 41 hurricanes and 20 major hurricanes. By contrast, the numbers of hurricanes and typhoons in the Pacific Ocean are lower, which Gray takes as an indication that the upward trend in Atlantic storms should not be interpreted as being the result of human-induced global warming.
Last edited by lars-ss; 08-31-2005 at 03:20 PM.
#17
08-31-2005, 04:33 PM
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
funny, since it's been said in numerous media articles how we'd never get over our initial cost of the car. Compared to what I had (a 12 mpg SUV) I'm making out like a bandit.
Oddly enough I'm in one of the impacted areas, a result from Katrina.....and Dennis.....and Ivan...
Oddly enough I'm in one of the impacted areas, a result from Katrina.....and Dennis.....and Ivan...
#18
08-31-2005, 04:35 PM
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
Atlanta is already experiencing a gas shortage and prices have risen to $4.99! The primary factors of the GAS shortage have to do with the damaged infrastructure and out of commission refineries. The Federal oil reserve "loan" may help supply the other refineries, but the damage to refineries, pipelines and ports won't be a quick fix. The labor force needed to repair and man these refineries also have to deal with housing/utility/food shortages.
To make matters worse, hurricane season has only started and with past couple years trend there are more predicted for the Gulf soon. Whether you believe Global Warming is the cause or not, the ocean surface temp has been rising in this area (which fuels large storms) and there is a trend of more hurricanes entering into the Gulf rather than moving up the East coast.
I am firmly in the camp that believes that with >$3/gal gas prices, America will start to change their excessive fuel consumption habits by driving less and purchasing more fuel efficient autos. The economists are saying that the lower income Americans are already reacting to higher gas prices, sighting reduced sales at Wal-Mart as an indicator.
My two cents...
-Dan
To make matters worse, hurricane season has only started and with past couple years trend there are more predicted for the Gulf soon. Whether you believe Global Warming is the cause or not, the ocean surface temp has been rising in this area (which fuels large storms) and there is a trend of more hurricanes entering into the Gulf rather than moving up the East coast.
I am firmly in the camp that believes that with >$3/gal gas prices, America will start to change their excessive fuel consumption habits by driving less and purchasing more fuel efficient autos. The economists are saying that the lower income Americans are already reacting to higher gas prices, sighting reduced sales at Wal-Mart as an indicator.
My two cents...
-Dan
Last edited by Gillman; 08-31-2005 at 04:46 PM.
#19
08-31-2005, 05:05 PM
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
Anybody else geting nothing but hate from the people they work with??? They all made fun of my "space ship" when I first got it now they still are making fun of me... A guy today said it's not you get really good MPG... He said what do you actually get... I told him 54.2 and his head started to droop... Yeah he is not digging his new SUV so much anymore... Even if he could crush my car with one of his bumpers.
Last edited by coz6; 08-31-2005 at 05:08 PM.
#20
08-31-2005, 05:19 PM
Re: $4 Gallon Gas Predicted
In the news today, GM reduces outlook for large vehicles:
http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosins...E04-298488.htm
http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosins...E04-298488.htm
General Motors Corp. tamped down expectations for its next-generation large sport utility vehicles coming out early next year, saying high gas prices and changing tastes were eroding demand for vehicles in that segment.
"We're not anticipating that the market will reach or exceed its prior peak," Paul Ballew, GM's executive director for industry analysis, told analysts Tuesday. "Given all the alternatives out there, given the uncertainty on gas prices, given some image factors, we think it's appropriate to plan in a more conservative manner and to assess the market potential for us in volume levels that don't take us to our prior peak."
"We're not anticipating that the market will reach or exceed its prior peak," Paul Ballew, GM's executive director for industry analysis, told analysts Tuesday. "Given all the alternatives out there, given the uncertainty on gas prices, given some image factors, we think it's appropriate to plan in a more conservative manner and to assess the market potential for us in volume levels that don't take us to our prior peak."
